• While most of the media’s attention has rightly been focused on the fact that the intelligence community has concluded that the Iraq war is a “cause celebre” for anti-American jihadist, I want to focus on two aspects of the declassified key findings that haven’t received as much analysis.

  We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

  Translation:  We are losing the War on Terrorism.  We are making terrorists faster than we can kill them, and a wave of violent extremism is spreading across the globe faster than we can put out the ideological fires.

  And exactly why are we losing the War on Terrorism?  

  Let’s discuss it on the flip…

  

  
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• The NIE is out. (.pdf)
  Update [2006-9-26 17:57:47 by DemFromCT]: (the sanitized Key Judgments summary, anyway)

  We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

  • The Iraq conflict has become the “cause celebre” for jihadists, breeding a deep
    resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

  Jane Harman is very clear that the second Iraq study is being kept a draft so as not to surface prior to the election (it’s bad news for the GOP).

  Harman Calls for Release of Second Secret Iraq Report

  Dan Froomkin sums up:

  President Bush’s all-important terror-fighting credentials are taking a bruising this week.

  Former President Clinton has revived charges that Bush didn’t take the threat of terrorism seriously enough before Sept. 11.

  And an intelligence report indicates that Bush’s signature response to terror since the attacks — invading Iraq — has actually backfired.

  The result: A potential erosion of Bush’s strongest political suit — at the worst possible moment for a White House already fearful of losing Republican majorities in Congress in November.

  Today’s release doesn’t stop the bleeding. The discussion remains squarely about Iraq, and how screwed up things are. This is not what the GOP and Bush wanted.

  

  
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